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A year after the crash, at Montana.

Ιουλίου 7, 2018

At the time of the crash we were having dinner in a less than average restaurant in Little Italy, New York, where we went for family holidays.
Reading this little piece, I cannot hide my pride, on being spot on, so very early on what has happened in the year that followed. (even if it was only an exercise of pointing at the obvious).

Things can only get worse without an agreed BBF framework close to what was agreed before the crash. But now it will not be easy. It will be much more difficult to come to an agreed result, since confidence between the two leaders has evaporated and you can see it in the way they behave, aiming at their own audiences, using the most pleasing slogans they can think of, displaying complete and miserable lack of vision.

Things are worse on our side. The government has not only been on the defensive, but it has actively tried to poison the atmosphere regarding the Turkish Cypriot leader, regarding the Turkish Cypriot community.
Assuming that the talks resume, assuming that they reach a beautiful end, who is going to convince the people, who is going to sell the plan, taking into consideration what has happened in the past year?
Last thing: even before the talks collapsed, I had predicted that there would be possible trouble with the presence of the UN force in Cyprus. Latest developments and press articles have shown that this might well be the case.

I am not sure if people realize the consequences of this. If it actually happens and UNFICYP goes or is significantly reduced, we will have the worst-case scenario which is to be at the mercy of the Turkish army, or the best-case scenario which is the rooting of the present status quo as the final settlement of the Cyprus issue.

Both outcomes are nightmares for the GC community, and in any case far from what we would be able to get, even under the worst scenario a year ago.

Good night and good luck north and south said the UN secretary.
It will not be enough.

This is what I had written a year ago:

Then it is a lose – lose situation for all involved. Especially the people of Cyprus. More specifically the republic of Cyprus, which will never have the chance to become a normal country. So, trouble and crisis is the only way ahead.

I have no heart to start blaming anybody for this. However two things have been in my mind for the last few months. If our side really understood the consequences of a failure, then it would have to give ample space for compromise . If that was the case, and – despite this – the other side was not ready to play game, then we are in for serious trouble. Surely this is easy to understand.

Good night and good luck, north and south. I guess that says it all.

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